Is an Assad-Erdogan Reconciliation Likely Before Turkey’s Elections?

The first high-level talks between Turkey and Syria in over a decade held in Moscow last week reflect the common interests of the two nations in limiting the autonomy of Syrian Kurds, experts say.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said more talks are planned for later this month.

Analysts speaking to VOA believe that if the process moves forward, an Erdogan-Assad meeting might be in the works. But they caution Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad might be unwilling to hand Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a political gift before the elections in Turkey, possibly in May.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan met their Syrian counterparts last Wednesday in Moscow. They were joined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and discussed the “Syrian crisis, the refugee problem and joint efforts against all terror groups on Syrian soil,” according to a statement by the Turkish Ministry of Defense.

Turkey supported the armed rebels that sought to topple Assad in Syria during the civil war that began in 2011, locking the two countries in bitter animosity for years.

The first contact between Turkey and Syria since the beginning of the civil war discreetly started between their intelligence services some time ago. Recent talks between the defense ministers underscored Ankara’s effort to engage in dialogue with Damascus, representing a major foreign policy reversal.

Common interests

Last week’s meeting follows Turkey’s threat to launch another military offensive against the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria, an action opposed by Russia, the United States and Iran.

The YPG forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S. ally in the fight against Islamic State. Turkey sees the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU.

Speaking to journalists before the talks in Moscow, Akar said Ankara had been in contact with Moscow about using Syrian airspace for a possible military operation.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told VOA that Ankara and Damascus share an interest in limiting the autonomy of the Syrian Kurds in northern Syria, and the talks reflect common security concerns with respect to the YPG.

“I do not discount a coordinated Syrian-Turkish effort against the YPG, particularly in Tel Rifaat or Manbij,” Ford said. “More likely, Ankara hopes Moscow and Damascus can convince the YPG to quit these locales without fighting and allow restoration of full Syrian control backed by Russian forces.”

Ford is currently a fellow at Yale University and at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington.

He added that despite having difficult relations, the Assad regime and the YPG sometimes cooperate because Assad finds their presence in the northeast “occasionally useful.”

Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, agrees that Turkey’s effort for dialogue with the Syrian government is partly dictated by its YPG concern. He said Erdogan wants to find common ground with Assad to remove the YPG from the border area and repress any Kurdish bid for autonomy.

Election concerns amid refugee problem

Experts speaking to VOA believe that the upcoming Turkish elections represent another significant factor at play.

Turkey hosts more than 4 million Syrian refugees. The government says it’s working on a plan to send 1 million Syrians back to their country on a voluntary basis. The refugee issue has recently been a sensitive one in Turkey’s domestic politics with elections a few months away.

Pointing to the Turkish public’s strong sentiment regarding the refugee issue, Makovsky told VOA that Erdogan hopes he can convince voters that dialogue with Assad will lead to the return of most Syrian refugees.

Cavusoglu hinted at more talks later this month, possibly at the foreign minister level, with Damascus.

“Russia has come forward with a date, but we’re not available on those days. So, we are working on some other proposals,” he told journalists on Tuesday.

Cavusoglu did not completely rule out the possibility of a meeting between the two presidents before the Turkish elections but said the decision would be up to Erdogan, adding that presidential level talks could be considered after the foreign ministers meet.

Reuters reported last month that Syria opposed the idea of a leaders’ summit with Turkey, saying Damascus believed such a meeting could boost Erdogan ahead of the elections.

Some analysts said there has to be some political progress before the two leaders can meet.

“I would expect an Erdogan-Assad meeting only if Erdogan needed a dramatic step to address the refugee issue, or if Assad was ready to make a major concession, such as guaranteeing safety for returning refugees. Assad is unlikely to hand Erdogan any political gift,” Ford said.

Turkey’s reconciliation effort with Syria continues to dominate the headlines in the Turkish press and public discussion. Experts say recent polls indicate there is a strong desire among Turkish citizens for a dramatic shift in the government’s Syria policy.

Makovsky said recent diplomatic momentum and political logic suggest an Assad-Erdogan agreement by spring. He pointed to a recent survey by Turkish polling company Metropoll that highlighted the domestic political dynamics in Turkey.

“Turks favor talking to Assad by 59-29 [percent], according to the survey. Erdogan could derive some political benefit from a mere photo-op. But Assad probably has no interest in helping Erdogan’s reelection bid. Turkey’s opposition party, CHP, has called for dialogue with Assad and noninterference in Syria since 2011. However, Russia almost certainly does want Erdogan to be reelected, and it’s well-positioned to make Assad agree to meet the Turkish president,” he told VOA.

US criticism and Russia

A spokesperson from the U.S. State Department said in a statement sent to VOA’s Turkish Service last week that the U.S. does not support countries “upgrading their relations to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad” and urged the nations to “carefully consider the atrocities inflicted by the Assad regime on the Syrian people” over the last decade.

Analysts speaking to VOA say Washington does not want to see the Assad government in Syria being legitimized and emboldened, because it would be a diplomatic and geopolitical success for Russia, from Washington’s perspective.

They also believe the U.S. does not want an agreement between Damascus and Ankara that would enable either the Turkish military or Syrian government forces to “weaken or distract the YPG” from its focus against Islamic State.

Some argue that Russia might be willing to give the green light to a military operation by Turkey in return for dialogue with the Assad government. Makovsky challenges that view, saying Russian opposition to another military action by Turkey appears quite firm.

He said Ankara’s request to purchase F-16 military fighter jets from Washington could be a factor in coming months, noting that foreign arms sales are subject to U.S. congressional approval.

Cavusoglu said he will meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken later this month in Washington to discuss bilateral issues, including Ankara’s F-16 request.

The two recently spoke by phone, and according to the readout provided, Blinken expressed concern over the situation in Syria.

The State Department confirmed the planned talks in the statement sent to VOA’s Turkish Service but did not provide additional details.

Source: Voice of America

MAKARY HONORS L’ORIENT LE JOUR FOR REAPING FRANCOPHONIE’S ‘GRANDE MÉDAILLE’

Caretaker Information Minister, Ziad Makary, hosted a ceremony at his ministry office on Wednesday to honor L’Orient Le Jour daily after being awarded the Francophonie’s “Grande Médaille.”

The event was attended by a crowd of ambassadors of the francophone states, alongside the Editors Order Chief and the Director General of the Information Ministry, among other figures.

“We gather here today to honor a daily that has been unremittingly committed to media and Francophonie, and that bore witness to the best and worst moments of Lebanon’s history,” said Makary.

“We are here to celebrate this professional commitment and this talent that marked the only French-speaking newspaper in the Middle East,” he added.

“Ever since its founding on June 15, 1971, L’Orient Le Jour remained loyal, and it has not failed to assume its key role,” he continued.

“It shed light on the free, pluralist and democratic Lebanon,” he underlined.

“L’Orient Le Jour has advocated and promoted these noble values, armed with a financial independence that allowed it to preserve a large margin of free speech even amid hostile conditions,” he went on saying, hailing the daily’s resilience and capacity to overcome hardships.

Source: National News Agency

Al-Jaafari, Bogdanov discuss latest developments in Syria

Moscow, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa, Mikhail Bogdanov, discussed with Syria’s Ambassador to Russia, Bashar al-Jaafari, the latest developments in Syria.

Talks during the meeting touched upon the overall situation in Syria and its surroundings, in accordance with the principles of Syria’s unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

Source: Syria Arab News Agency

National Guard President patronizes Al-Badr-7 ceremony

Manama, The National Guard today concluded the joint drill “Al- Badr-7”, which was conducted with the Pakistani Army,

National Guard President General HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa Al Khalifa patronized the ceremony which was held amid the celebrations marking the National Guard’s 26th anniversary.

The ceremony was also attended by BDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Dheyab bin Saqr Alnoaimi, Pakistani Army Director General of Training and Evaluation Inspector General Lt. Gen. Muhammad Chiragh Haider and other officers Gen. HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa Al Khalifa, accompanied by National Guard Staff Director Lt. Gen. Shaikh Abdulazizz bin Saud Al Khalifa, was received on arrival by senior officers.

During the ceremony, Gen. HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa Al Khalifa granted military service medals Class I and II to officers and non-commissioned officers of the National Guard, as per Royal Decree No. (46) of 2022.

His Highness also handed National Guard President’s Shooting Championship Cup to Lieutenant Colonel His Highness Shaikh Salman bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, Commander of the Special Operations Unit.

Gen. HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed congratulations to His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces on the 26th milestone.

He also extended congratulations to His Royal Highness Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister.

Gen. HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Isa Al Khalifa praised the royal care accorded y HM the King, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, to the National Guard to enhance its readiness and capabilities to perform its duties in maintaining Bahrain’s security and stability.

He expressed his pride in the levels of development and modernization attained by the National Guard, in accordance with strategic plans that included all its leadership, training, operational and logistical sectors, to be a protective force for the achievements and gains of the prosperous era of His Majesty.

“Al-Badr drills to combat terrorism reflect advanced levels of military cooperation with the Pakistani army in accordance with protocols signed between the two sides, to raise levels of readiness and exchange expertise”, he said.

He lauded the success of the joint drill “Al-Badr 7”, congratulating the participating forces from the National Guard and the Pakistani army for their accuracy and high efficiency in implementing the exercises.

Source: Bahrain News Agency

Installation of digital power metres on track, said EWA president

Manama, The installation of hi-tech power digital meters is expected to be complete by June 2023 as planned, said Electricity and Water Authority (EWA) President Kamal bin Ahmed Mohammed.

He said that the project, which is on track, is one of EWA Which strategic initiatives aim to bring about digital transformation in the electricity and water sector in Bahrain.

The new digital meters provide subscribers accurate readings automatically and remotely without the need for any human intervention, in addition to the automatic disconnection of the electric current in case of additional loads.

The new metres, which can also record readings related to the quality of the electric current for subscribers, are characterized by the speed of activating subscribers’ accounts by connecting the electric current to the meters remotely without the need to visit the site.

“The digital meters provide an automated system starting from reading to billing, in addition to the possibility of linking them during the next stage with smart applications so that the subscriber can accurately view the pattern of his consumption”, said the EWA President.

Source: Bahrain News Agency

Jordanian Prime Minister arrives in Bahrain

Manama, At the invitation of His Royal Highness Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Jordan’s Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Dr. Bishr Khasawneh, and his accompanying delegation arrived here today on a visit to the kingdom to take part in the fifth meeting of the Bahrain-Jordan Joint Higher Committee.

Upon arrival at the Bahrain International Airport, Dr. Bishr Khasawneh was welcomed by Foreign Minister and Head of the Convoy of Honour, Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, Cabinet Affairs Minister, Hamad bin Faisal Al-Maliki, and Muharraq Governor, Salman bin Isa bin Hindi Al-Mannai.

He was also welcomed by the Jordanian Ambassador to Bahrain and Dean of Diplomatic Corps, Rami Saleh Wriekat Al Adwan, Bahraini Ambassador to Jordan, Ahmed Yousif Al-Ruwaie, and Director-General of the Prime Minister’s Office, Hamad Al-Mahmeed, in addition to a number of senior officers from the Bahrain Defence Force, Interior Ministry and National Guard.

Source: Bahrain News Agency

The Saudi team arrives in Basra

Basra The Saudi national team arrived this evening in Basra Governorate to participate in the 25th Gulf Championship, which will start next Friday.

Source: National Iraqi News Agency

Works Minister inspects emergency teams

Manama, Works Ministers Ibrahim bin Hassan Al Hawaj conducted a field tours across Bahrain and took stock of the emergency teams’ efforts to ensure the safety of roads and the smooth flow of the traffic during rainfall.

The field tour included Wali Al Ahd Highway, Al Quds Highway, National Charter Highway, Umm Naasan Highway and Zallaq Highway.

He stressed that the main road network and tunnels are passable and operate safely, as rainwater the rain team.

The minister also inspected the Al-Lawzi area in the Northern Governorate, in order to ensure the effectiveness of the k solutions that were implemented to prevent the accumulation of rainwater.

He cited the expansion of the open water channel adjacent to Street 30 leading to Al-Lawzi Lake, in order to raise the absorptive capacity for rainwater drainage.

The Ministry of Works has allocated hotline 17545544 to report rainwater pools on the main streets.

Source: Bahrain News Agency